Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints26
- T.J. McConnellAssists7
- Andrew NembhardRebounds5
Knicks- Donte DiVincenzoPoints39
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Josh HartRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–109
- Q411.0shot clock turnover130–109
- Q435.1Mamadi Diakite enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo130–109
- Q435.1shot clock turnover130–109
- Q459.1Kendall Brown enters the game for Pascal Siakam130–109
- Q459.1Isaiah Jackson enters the game for Myles Turner130–109
- Q459.1Ben Sheppard enters the game for Tyrese Haliburton130–109
- Q459.1T.J. McConnell enters the game for Aaron Nesmith130–109
- Q459.1Jarace Walker enters the game for Andrew Nembhard130–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:33Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotIND 70 – 62 NY · NY 24% → 32% +8NY 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q39:10Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 73 – 62 NY · IND 69% → 76% +8IND 69% → 76%+8 pts
- Q38:53Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot step back jumpshotIND 73 – 65 NY · NY 23% → 31% +8NY 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q36:43Donte DiVincenzo makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)IND 77 – 70 NY · NY 24% → 33% +8NY 24% → 33%+8 pts
- Q35:58Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 80 – 70 NY · IND 68% → 76% +9IND 68% → 76%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2
- NY 57%
- Fair odds
- NY -140
- IND +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 111.8 – 114.3 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −6 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +50 Elo | NY 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 112.819th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 108.22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +4.65th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 115.87th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Pace | 97.230th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 5–4 NY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- May 17NY 103 @ IND 116PlayoffsPicked NY 50%Miss
- May 14IND 91 @ NY 121PlayoffsPicked NY 56%Hit
- May 12NY 89 @ IND 121PlayoffsPicked NY 52%Miss
- May 10NY 106 @ IND 111PlayoffsPicked NY 54%Miss
- May 8IND 121 @ NY 130PlayoffsPicked NY 64%Hit
- May 6IND 117 @ NY 121PlayoffsPicked NY 63%Hit
- Feb 10IND 125 @ NY 111Picked NY 58%Miss
- Feb 1IND 105 @ NY 109Picked NY 58%Hit