Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints30
- Kyrie IrvingAssists2
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints22
- Jayson TatumAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–107
- Q46.0shot clock turnover89–107
- Q428.1Sam Hauser defensive rebound89–107
- Q430.1Josh Green misses driving layup89–107
- Q438.1Dante Exum defensive rebound89–107
- Q440.1Payton Pritchard misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot89–107
- Q458.2Josh Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)89–107
- Q41:04Payton Pritchard bad pass (Tim Hardaway Jr. steals)86–107
- Q41:26Jaden Hardy makes 9-foot two point shot86–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:16Derrick Jones Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Daniel Gafford assists)DAL 3 – 2 BOS · DAL 28% → 34% +6DAL 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q111:08Jrue Holiday makes 27-foot three pointer (Derrick White assists)DAL 3 – 5 BOS · BOS 66% → 72% +6BOS 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q19:04Al Horford makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)DAL 9 – 8 BOS · BOS 60% → 66% +6BOS 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q16:19Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)DAL 15 – 17 BOS · BOS 65% → 71% +6BOS 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q34:28Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three pointerDAL 64 – 72 BOS · DAL 10% → 16% +6DAL 10% → 16%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.1% of 390 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4.5
- BOS 68%
- Fair odds
- BOS -214
- DAL +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 106.7 – 112.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1647 | 1690 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +41 | DAL: Usual rotation · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +129 Elo | BOS 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 109.25th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 121.11st of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 37–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.