Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints28
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds5
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints40
- Jrue HolidayAssists10
- Al HorfordRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–126
- Q44.0shot clock turnover110–126
- Q428.1Jalen Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper110–126
- Q430.1Jarace Walker offensive rebound107–126
- Q432.0Jalen Smith misses free throw 2 of 2107–126
- Q432.0Jalen Smith makes free throw 1 of 2107–126
- Q432.0Svi Mykhailiuk shooting foul106–126
- Q434.0Jalen Smith offensive rebound106–126
- Q436.0Jarace Walker misses 18-foot two point shot106–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:40Payton Pritchard makes 27-foot step back jumpshotIND 23 – 20 BOS · BOS 54% → 60% +7BOS 54% → 60%+7 pts
- Q131.1Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)IND 27 – 25 BOS · BOS 55% → 62% +7BOS 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q37:55Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 66 – 68 BOS · IND 24% → 32% +8IND 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q35:45Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)IND 68 – 75 BOS · BOS 74% → 81% +8BOS 74% → 81%+8 pts
- Q34:32Jaylen Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)IND 71 – 80 BOS · BOS 79% → 86% +7BOS 79% → 86%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 69%
- Fair odds
- BOS -216
- IND +216 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 113.9 – 119.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1676 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | +21 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +136 Elo | BOS 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 109.25th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 121.11st of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 37–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 2–4 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.