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Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

FinalBOS wins series 4-0

Away

Celtics

64-18

105–102

at

Home

Pacers

47-35

BOS 69%IND 31%

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Gainbridge Fieldhouse · ESPN, ESPN2

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored BOS favored103 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%BOS

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Celtics
Pacers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game105–102
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–102
  • Q44.1Jrue Holiday offensive rebound105–102
  • Q48.1Jayson Tatum misses 28-foot step back jumpshot105–102
  • Q429.0Aaron Nesmith personal foul105–102
  • Q430.1Jayson Tatum defensive rebound105–102
  • Q433.1Andrew Nembhard misses 26-foot step back jumpshot105–102
  • Q445.0Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)105–102
  • Q41:03Al Horford defensive rebound102–102
  • Q41:05Jaylen Brown blocks Andrew Nembhard 's 3-foot two point shot102–102

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q44:54Jayson Tatum makes 27-foot step back jumpshotBOS 95 – 98 IND · BOS 21% → 37% +16
  2. Q43:33Pascal Siakam makes 3-foot two point shot (Obi Toppin assists)BOS 98 – 102 IND · IND 60% → 74% +14
  3. Q43:10Jayson Tatum makes 2-foot driving dunkBOS 100 – 102 IND · BOS 25% → 39% +14
  4. Q42:40Jaylen Brown makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotBOS 102 – 102 IND · BOS 37% → 55% +17
  5. Q445.0Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 105 – 102 IND · BOS 53% → 91% +38

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Celtics 69%

SolidHit
BOS 69%IND 31%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
BOS 69%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -5.5
BOS 71%
Fair odds
BOS -227
IND +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 119.6 – 113.4 IND
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSINDWhy
Team rating16871569Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+21−50BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsBOS +153 EloBOS 70.7%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 69.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 69.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatIND
2nd of 30120.6Points scored123.11st of 30
5th of 30109.2Points allowed120.327th of 30
1st of 30+11.3Margin+2.810th of 30
1st of 30121.1Offense rating118.72nd of 30
3rd of 30109.7Defense rating115.924th of 30
21st of 3098.8Pace103.62nd of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 107–33rd of 30
2nd of 3027–14Road vs home26–1510th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Celtics

+21 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pacers

−50 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CelticsPacers
13001400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

BOS 6–2 IND in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.