Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints36
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds10
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints32
- Andrew NembhardAssists9
- Myles TurnerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–111
- Q40.1Pacers offensive team rebound114–111
- Q40.1Aaron Nesmith misses 25-foot three point shot114–111
- Q41.1Doug McDermott enters the game for T.J. McConnell114–111
- Q41.1Pacers Full timeout114–111
- Q41.1Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2114–111
- Q41.1Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2113–111
- Q41.1(00:01.7) [Celtics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)112–111
- Q41.1Pascal Siakam personal take foul112–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:56Andrew Nembhard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)BOS 97 – 104 IND · IND 72% → 87% +15IND 72% → 87%+15 pts
- Q41:41Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 106 – 109 IND · BOS 6% → 23% +17BOS 6% → 23%+17 pts
- Q41:12Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 109 – 111 IND · BOS 6% → 28% +22BOS 6% → 28%+22 pts
- Q438.2Jrue Holiday makes driving layup (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 111 – 111 IND · BOS 20% → 52% +32BOS 20% → 52%+32 pts
- Q438.2Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 1BOS 112 – 111 IND · BOS 52% → 69% +17BOS 52% → 69%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 70%
- Fair odds
- BOS -218
- IND +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 119.8 – 113.9 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1684 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −50 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +147 Elo | BOS 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 123.11st of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 120.327th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.3 | Margin | +2.810th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 118.72nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 115.924th of 30 |
| 21st of 3098.8 | Pace | 103.62nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–14 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 5–2 IND in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.