Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints31
- Jaylen BrownAssists8
- Jaylen BrownRebounds8
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints35
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–99
- Q410.1P.J. Washington makes free throw 2 of 2106–99
- Q410.1Mavericks offensive team rebound106–98
- Q410.1P.J. Washington misses free throw 1 of 2106–98
- Q410.1Al Horford personal take foul106–98
- Q414.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2106–98
- Q414.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2105–98
- Q414.1Josh Green personal take foul104–98
- Q416.1Jaylen Brown defensive rebound104–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:37Kyrie Irving makes 17-foot pullup jump shotBOS 93 – 92 DAL · DAL 27% → 41% +14DAL 27% → 41%+14 pts
- Q43:08Jaylen Brown makes tip shotBOS 95 – 92 DAL · BOS 60% → 74% +15BOS 60% → 74%+15 pts
- Q42:48Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 98 – 92 DAL · BOS 75% → 91% +15BOS 75% → 91%+15 pts
- Q41:20Dereck Lively II makes dunk (Kyrie Irving assists)BOS 100 – 98 DAL · DAL 10% → 26% +16DAL 10% → 26%+16 pts
- Q41:01Jaylen Brown makes 20-foot pullup jump shotBOS 102 – 98 DAL · BOS 77% → 93% +16BOS 77% → 93%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2
- BOS 58%
- Fair odds
- BOS -132
- DAL +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 109.1 – 107.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1703 | 1633 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −10 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +58 Elo | BOS 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 115.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.3 | Margin | +2.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 21st of 3098.8 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–14 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–0 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.