San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Julian ChampagniePoints18
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints28
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–120
- Q42.0shot clock turnover109–120
- Q424.0Spencer Dinwiddie defensive rebound109–120
- Q426.1Blake Wesley misses two point shot109–120
- Q429.0Malaki Branham defensive rebound109–120
- Q432.1Sandro Mamukelashvili blocks Quentin Grimes 's 1-foot driving layup109–120
- Q454.1Malaki Branham makes layup (Stephon Castle assists)109–120
- Q456.1Stephon Castle offensive rebound107–120
- Q459.0Malaki Branham misses 24-foot three point jumper107–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:06Keldon Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SA 45 – 42 DAL · SA 30% → 38% +8SA 30% → 38%+8 pts
- Q21:09Jaden Hardy makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)SA 49 – 47 DAL · DAL 56% → 64% +8DAL 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q311:04Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)SA 49 – 50 DAL · DAL 63% → 71% +8DAL 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q310:31Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Daniel Gafford assists)SA 51 – 53 DAL · DAL 66% → 74% +8DAL 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q34:17Chris Paul makes 24-foot three pointer (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 68 – 71 DAL · SA 17% → 25% +8SA 17% → 25%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -8.5
- ML SA +300 / DAL -375
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6
- DAL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 72.4%, market 75.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -316
- SA +316 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 109.0 – 117.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | −4 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +168 Elo | DAL 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 70.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 75.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.1 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 115.620th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.5 | Margin | +2.214th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30102.8 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–31 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–4 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.