Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- James WisemanPoints21
- Marcus SasserAssists7
- James WisemanRebounds17
Spurs- Sandro MamukelashviliPoints18
- Tre JonesAssists6
- Zach CollinsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–123
- Q419.0shot clock turnover95–123
- Q443.0Buddy Boeheim makes free throw 2 of 295–123
- Q443.0Buddy Boeheim makes free throw 1 of 294–123
- Q443.0Sidy Cissoko personal foul93–123
- Q443.0Buddy Boeheim offensive rebound93–123
- Q446.1Marcus Sasser misses 23-foot three point jumper93–123
- Q448.1Buddy Boeheim offensive rebound93–123
- Q452.0Sidy Cissoko blocks Marcus Sasser 's 2-foot two point shot93–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:11Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)DET 4 – 5 SA · SA 63% → 69% +6SA 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q15:51Jared Rhoden makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 15 – 13 SA · DET 32% → 38% +6DET 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q15:25Devonte' Graham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)DET 15 – 16 SA · SA 62% → 68% +6SA 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q12:03David Duke Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devonte' Graham assists)DET 19 – 26 SA · SA 74% → 79% +5SA 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q13.1Devonte' Graham makes 27-foot step back jumpshotDET 23 – 29 SA · SA 72% → 77% +6SA 72% → 77%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Spurs 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5
- SA 69%
- Fair odds
- SA -206
- DET +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 109.5 – 115.0 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1350 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −54 | −5 | DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −24, Jalen Duren −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +141 Elo | SA 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 67.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 112.023rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.9 | Points allowed | 118.925th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.9 | Margin | −6.926th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 108.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 114.722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.5 | Pace | 102.83rd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–34 | Road vs home | 11–2925th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−54 Elo- Cade Cunningham left knee soreness−24 Elo
- Jalen Duren back spasms−13 Elo
Spurs
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 SA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.