Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints28
- Kyrie IrvingAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints31
- Jayson TatumAssists11
- Jrue HolidayRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–106
- Q421.0Dwight Powell defensive rebound88–106
- Q422.1Sam Hauser misses 27-foot three point jumper88–106
- Q432.1Svi Mykhailiuk defensive rebound88–106
- Q433.0Jaden Hardy misses driving dunk88–106
- Q438.2Svi Mykhailiuk enters the game for Derrick White88–106
- Q438.2Oshae Brissett enters the game for Jrue Holiday88–106
- Q438.2Sam Hauser personal take foul88–106
- Q446.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound88–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:28Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)DAL 2 – 9 BOS · BOS 72% → 77% +5BOS 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q15:28Josh Green makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 11 – 13 BOS · DAL 27% → 32% +6DAL 27% → 32%+6 pts
- Q15:03Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)DAL 11 – 16 BOS · BOS 67% → 73% +6BOS 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q11:55Dante Exum makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 18 – 19 BOS · DAL 29% → 35% +6DAL 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q11:04Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)DAL 18 – 24 BOS · BOS 69% → 75% +6BOS 69% → 75%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2.5
- BOS 59%
- Fair odds
- BOS -181
- DAL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 105.0 – 109.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1662 | 1674 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +4 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | DAL crossed 1 time zone and BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +64 Elo | BOS 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 109.25th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 121.11st of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 37–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–5 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.