Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints40
- Kyrie IrvingAssists5
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds11
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Tyus JonesAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–114
- Q412.1Quentin Grimes defensive rebound102–114
- Q420.0Collin Gillespie misses 7-foot two point shot102–114
- Q442.1Jazian Gortman lost ball turnover (Kevin Durant steals)102–114
- Q445.2Jazian Gortman vs. Kevin Durant (Damion Lee gains possession)102–114
- Q445.2Damion Lee enters the game for Tyus Jones102–114
- Q445.2Collin Gillespie enters the game for Devin Booker102–114
- Q445.2Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Royce O'Neale102–114
- Q41:01Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2102–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:11Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 63 – 66 PHX · DAL 39% → 48% +9DAL 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q35:43Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)DAL 71 – 81 PHX · PHX 67% → 75% +9PHX 67% → 75%+9 pts
- Q32:39Luka Doncic makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 76 – 83 PHX · DAL 21% → 31% +9DAL 21% → 31%+9 pts
- Q411:27Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)DAL 83 – 91 PHX · DAL 15% → 24% +9DAL 15% → 24%+9 pts
- Q47:38Ryan Dunn makes 26-foot three pointer (Jusuf Nurkic assists)DAL 90 – 99 PHX · PHX 75% → 86% +11PHX 75% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3.5
- ML DAL -175 / PHX +145
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4
- DAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 65.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -156
- PHX +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 116.5 – 113.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1596 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | −22 | DAL: Usual rotation · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +108 Elo | DAL 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 116.210th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 113.213th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +3.18th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 115.69th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 112.513th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.015th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 2–1 PHX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.