Sacramento Kings at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints31
- Domantas SabonisAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints25
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Clint CapelaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–115
- Q419.1DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound123–115
- Q423.1Garrison Mathews misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot123–115
- Q426.0Trey Lyles personal foul123–115
- Q427.1Hawks Full timeout123–115
- Q427.1Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2123–115
- Q427.1Kings offensive team rebound122–115
- Q427.1Malik Monk misses free throw 1 of 2122–115
- Q427.1Garrison Mathews personal foul122–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:51Trae Young makes 19-foot step back jumpshot (Clint Capela assists)SAC 109 – 109 ATL · ATL 32% → 43% +11ATL 32% → 43%+11 pts
- Q45:39De'Aaron Fox makes 10-foot pullup jump shotSAC 111 – 109 ATL · SAC 56% → 68% +11SAC 56% → 68%+11 pts
- Q45:12DeMar DeRozan makes 14-foot pullup jump shotSAC 113 – 109 ATL · SAC 68% → 78% +10SAC 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q43:44Garrison Mathews makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)SAC 115 – 112 ATL · ATL 11% → 24% +14ATL 11% → 24%+14 pts
- Q43:00De'Aaron Fox makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)SAC 118 – 112 ATL · SAC 77% → 91% +14SAC 77% → 91%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -6.5
- ML SAC -245 / ATL +200
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -3
- SAC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- SAC: Elo 61.3%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- SAC -213
- ATL +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 121.0 – 114.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | −18 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SAC +80 Elo | SAC 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 117.67th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 123.628th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.0 | Margin | −6.023rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 111.012th of 30 |
| 7th of 30107.7 | Defense rating | 116.728th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.5 | Pace | 105.83rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 2–0 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.