Atlanta Hawks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints24
- Trae YoungAssists8
- Clint CapelaRebounds10
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–128
- Q46.1Thunder defensive team rebound104–128
- Q48.0Keaton Wallace misses 12-foot two point shot104–128
- Q426.1Keaton Wallace defensive rebound104–128
- Q430.1Alex Ducas misses 12-foot two point shot104–128
- Q448.1Adam Flagler defensive rebound104–128
- Q452.0Mouhamed Gueye misses 25-foot three point jumper104–128
- Q41:03Alex Reese makes tip shot104–128
- Q41:03Alex Reese offensive rebound104–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:25David Roddy makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 39 – 33 OKC · ATL 29% → 39% +9ATL 29% → 39%+9 pts
- Q231.1Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)ATL 58 – 53 OKC · OKC 51% → 59% +9OKC 51% → 59%+9 pts
- Q32:32Onyeka Okongwu makes 23-foot three point jumper (David Roddy assists)ATL 82 – 81 OKC · ATL 26% → 36% +10ATL 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q32:17Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)ATL 82 – 84 OKC · OKC 64% → 74% +10OKC 64% → 74%+10 pts
- Q31:59Garrison Mathews makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 85 – 84 OKC · ATL 26% → 36% +10ATL 26% → 36%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -10.5
- ML ATL +375 / OKC -500
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 67.3%, market 79.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -396
- ATL +396 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 110.0 – 120.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −19 | −5 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +125 Elo | OKC 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 64.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 79.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 120.13rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 112.711th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.2 | Margin | +7.42nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 117.53rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 110.34th of 30 |
| 5th of 30101.9 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–26 | Road vs home | 33–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 OKC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.