Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints24
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds16
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints22
- Ayo DosunmuAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–95
- Q421.1Dalen Terry steps out of bounds turnover114–95
- Q429.1Talen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound114–95
- Q432.0Alex Ducas misses 22-foot three point jumper114–95
- Q449.1Talen Horton-Tucker lost ball turnover (Dillon Jones steals)114–95
- Q458.1Ousmane Dieng makes free throw 2 of 2114–95
- Q458.1Ousmane Dieng makes free throw 1 of 2113–95
- Q458.1Matas Buzelis shooting foul112–95
- Q41:17Talen Horton-Tucker makes free throw 2 of 2112–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:36Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 5 – 5 CHI · OKC 73% → 78% +5OKC 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q210:40Jalen Smith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 26 – 24 CHI · CHI 17% → 22% +5CHI 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q28:18Patrick Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)OKC 32 – 31 CHI · CHI 19% → 24% +6CHI 19% → 24%+6 pts
- Q27:56Alex Caruso makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 35 – 31 CHI · OKC 76% → 81% +6OKC 76% → 81%+6 pts
- Q26:49Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumperOKC 35 – 34 CHI · CHI 19% → 24% +6CHI 19% → 24%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -9.5
- ML OKC -450 / CHI +340
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 67.6%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -360
- CHI +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 120.5 – 111.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | −41 | OKC: Usual rotation · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +128 Elo | OKC 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 67.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.1 | Points scored | 112.322nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 113.716th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.4 | Margin | −1.420th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 113.019th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 114.421st of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 97.928th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 20–2122nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.