Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints35
- Josh GiddeyAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds10
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints38
- Damian LillardAssists8
- Bobby PortisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–122
- Q44.1Dalen Terry defensive rebound133–122
- Q44.1Ayo Dosunmu blocks AJ Johnson 's 4-foot driving layup133–122
- Q414.1shot clock turnover133–122
- Q414.1Bulls offensive team rebound133–122
- Q415.1Matas Buzelis misses 15-foot two point shot133–122
- Q438.1Ryan Rollins makes free throw 2 of 2133–122
- Q438.1Ryan Rollins makes free throw 1 of 2133–121
- Q438.1Matas Buzelis shooting foul133–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:41AJ Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Delon Wright assists)CHI 102 – 98 MIL · MIL 36% → 48% +12MIL 36% → 48%+12 pts
- Q411:02AJ Green makes 25-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)CHI 102 – 101 MIL · MIL 47% → 60% +13MIL 47% → 60%+13 pts
- Q410:42Patrick Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 105 – 101 MIL · CHI 40% → 53% +13CHI 40% → 53%+13 pts
- Q49:31Jalen Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 110 – 102 MIL · CHI 60% → 72% +13CHI 60% → 72%+13 pts
- Q46:24Patrick Williams makes layupCHI 117 – 105 MIL · CHI 81% → 92% +12CHI 81% → 92%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -9.5
- ML CHI +330 / MIL -420
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6
- MIL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 72.4%, market 77.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -347
- CHI +347 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 112.5 – 122.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −55 | +12 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +167 Elo | MIL 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 71.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 77.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.3 | Points scored | 119.04th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 116.421st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +2.611th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 116.46th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.9 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 31–114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–3 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.