Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints35
- Trae YoungAssists15
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds17
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints27
- Jordan PooleAssists9
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–133
- Q48.1David Roddy makes free throw 2 of 2120–133
- Q48.1David Roddy makes free throw 1 of 2119–133
- Q48.1Jonas Valanciunas shooting foul118–133
- Q426.1Carlton Carrington makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot118–133
- Q447.1David Roddy makes free throw 2 of 2118–131
- Q447.1Garrison Mathews enters the game for Trae Young117–131
- Q447.1Keaton Wallace enters the game for Jalen Johnson117–131
- Q447.1Jared Butler enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly117–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:11Bilal Coulibaly makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)ATL 84 – 89 WSH · WSH 49% → 60% +11WSH 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q31:27Keaton Wallace makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 89 – 91 WSH · ATL 39% → 51% +12ATL 39% → 51%+12 pts
- Q355.1Trae Young makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keaton Wallace assists)ATL 92 – 91 WSH · ATL 50% → 62% +12ATL 50% → 62%+12 pts
- Q411:32Corey Kispert makes 27-foot three point shot (Carlton Carrington assists)ATL 92 – 96 WSH · WSH 46% → 59% +13WSH 46% → 59%+13 pts
- Q410:57Alexandre Sarr makes 24-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)ATL 92 – 99 WSH · WSH 60% → 72% +12WSH 60% → 72%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -4.5
- ML ATL -210 / WSH +180
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- ATL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.0%, market 65.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -190
- WSH +190 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 119.0 – 114.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1370 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | −36 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +71 Elo | ATL 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 113.015th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.3 | Points allowed | 125.330th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−4.3 | Margin | −12.329th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 105.726th of 30 |
| 26th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 117.329th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.4 | Pace | 106.94th of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 0–221st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.