Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- Donovan MitchellAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints23
- Jordan PooleAssists6
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–116
- Q40.0shot clock turnover135–116
- Q424.1Johnny Davis makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Jared Butler assists)135–116
- Q434.1Ty Jerome makes free throw 2 of 2135–114
- Q434.1Ty Jerome makes free throw 1 of 2134–114
- Q434.1Johnny Davis shooting foul133–114
- Q439.0Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound133–114
- Q442.1Kyshawn George misses 23-foot three point jumper133–114
- Q453.1Ty Jerome makes 26-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)133–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:07Bilal Coulibaly makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)CLE 30 – 28 WSH · WSH 16% → 21% +5WSH 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q28:40Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 33 – 28 WSH · CLE 79% → 84% +5CLE 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q21:39Jordan Poole makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)CLE 52 – 48 WSH · WSH 14% → 19% +5WSH 14% → 19%+5 pts
- Q21:19Caris LeVert makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 55 – 48 WSH · CLE 81% → 86% +5CLE 81% → 86%+5 pts
- Q21:08Jordan Poole makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 55 – 51 WSH · WSH 14% → 19% +5WSH 14% → 19%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -9.5
- ML CLE -500 / WSH +360
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4.5
- CLE 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 67.5%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -383
- WSH +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 118.5 – 109.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +19 | −28 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +127 Elo | CLE 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 70.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 113.717th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 123.030th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.4 | Margin | −9.329th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 108.725th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 117.628th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 104.41st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 7–3430th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 4–0 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.