Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints27
- Jayson TatumAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints26
- Bilal CoulibalyAssists6
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–102
- Q421.1JD Davison defensive rebound122–102
- Q424.1Jared Butler misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot122–102
- Q430.1Wizards offensive team rebound122–102
- Q430.1Drew Peterson blocks Anthony Gill 's 7-foot driving layup122–102
- Q448.1Jaden Springer makes free throw 2 of 2122–102
- Q448.1Celtics offensive team rebound121–102
- Q448.1Jaden Springer misses free throw 1 of 2121–102
- Q448.1Justin Champagnie shooting foul121–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:05Jordan Poole makes 23-foot three pointer (Corey Kispert assists)BOS 14 – 22 WSH · WSH 22% → 27% +5WSH 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q14:49Xavier Tillman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 17 – 22 WSH · BOS 72% → 78% +5BOS 72% → 78%+5 pts
- Q13:54Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three pointer (Xavier Tillman assists)BOS 20 – 24 WSH · BOS 74% → 79% +5BOS 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q12:59Derrick White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)BOS 23 – 26 WSH · BOS 75% → 80% +5BOS 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q25:24Jordan Poole makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 49 – 51 WSH · WSH 17% → 22% +6WSH 17% → 22%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -14.5
- ML BOS -1000 / WSH +650
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8.5
- BOS 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 79.3%, market 87.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -682
- WSH +682 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 122.5 – 108.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1624 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | −37 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +233 Elo | BOS 79.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 75.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 87.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 113.717th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 123.030th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.3 | Margin | −9.329th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 108.725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 117.628th of 30 |
| 21st of 3098.8 | Pace | 104.41st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–14 | Road vs home | 7–3430th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–0 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.