New York Knicks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints22
- Cameron PayneAssists4
- Jericho SimsRebounds9
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints37
- Jayson TatumAssists10
- Jaylen BrownRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–132
- Q411.0shot clock turnover109–132
- Q435.1Celtics defensive team rebound109–132
- Q436.2Jacob Toppin misses 24-foot three point jumper109–132
- Q451.0Knicks defensive team rebound109–132
- Q452.1Jordan Walsh misses 25-foot three point jumper109–132
- Q455.1Pacome Dadiet loose ball foul109–132
- Q455.1Celtics offensive team rebound109–132
- Q457.2Sam Hauser misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot109–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:48Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointer (Derrick White assists)NY 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 63% → 69% +6BOS 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q110:21Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)NY 6 – 8 BOS · BOS 61% → 67% +6BOS 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q19:34Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)NY 8 – 11 BOS · BOS 63% → 69% +6BOS 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q17:36Jaylen Brown makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)NY 12 – 16 BOS · BOS 64% → 70% +6BOS 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q14:38Jayson Tatum makes 29-foot three pointerNY 16 – 24 BOS · BOS 72% → 78% +5BOS 72% → 78%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -5.5
- ML NY +160 / BOS -190
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 62.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -170
- NY +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 108.0 – 113.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −12 | NY: Usual rotation · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +92 Elo | BOS 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 109.25th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 121.11st of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.2 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 37–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–4 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.