Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds7
Cavaliers- Dean WadePoints19
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–113
- Q417.2Georges Niang defensive rebound101–113
- Q422.0Ronald Holland II misses 26-foot three point jumper101–113
- Q425.1Marcus Sasser offensive rebound101–113
- Q429.1Daniss Jenkins misses 28-foot three point jumper101–113
- Q440.1Ty Jerome makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot101–113
- Q41:09Ronald Holland II makes driving layup (Marcus Sasser assists)101–111
- Q41:17Jaylon Tyson enters the game for Donovan Mitchell99–111
- Q41:17Georges Niang enters the game for Jarrett Allen99–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:53Evan Mobley makes 26-foot three point jumperDET 31 – 31 CLE · CLE 73% → 79% +6CLE 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q28:38Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three pointer (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 38 – 35 CLE · DET 22% → 28% +6DET 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q27:17Dean Wade makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)DET 38 – 40 CLE · CLE 76% → 81% +6CLE 76% → 81%+6 pts
- Q25:00Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 46 – 46 CLE · DET 17% → 23% +6DET 17% → 23%+6 pts
- Q31:10Georges Niang makes 26-foot three point shotDET 79 – 86 CLE · CLE 81% → 88% +7CLE 81% → 88%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -10.5
- ML DET +450 / CLE -700
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5.5
- CLE 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 71.3%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- CLE -481
- DET +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 107.0 – 117.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +17 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +158 Elo | CLE 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 112.620th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 110.27th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.1 | Margin | +2.413th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 111.06th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.5 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–35 | Road vs home | 25–1511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–4 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.