Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints20
- Pascal SiakamAssists9
- Myles TurnerRebounds9
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints28
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–109
- Q42.0Malik Beasley bad pass (Andrew Nembhard steals)115–109
- Q47.0Aaron Nesmith enters the game for Myles Turner115–109
- Q47.0Ben Sheppard enters the game for Tyrese Haliburton115–109
- Q47.0Malik Beasley enters the game for Ron Holland II115–109
- Q47.0Pistons Full timeout115–109
- Q47.0Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 2 of 2115–109
- Q47.0Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 1 of 2114–109
- Q47.0Tobias Harris shooting foul113–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:31Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three pointerIND 78 – 80 DET · DET 38% → 49% +11DET 38% → 49%+11 pts
- Q410:50Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three pointer (Jaden Ivey assists)IND 87 – 95 DET · DET 64% → 75% +11DET 64% → 75%+11 pts
- Q43:41Pascal Siakam makes 15-foot two point shotIND 103 – 100 DET · IND 62% → 75% +13IND 62% → 75%+13 pts
- Q43:12Jaden Ivey makes 1-foot two point shot (Jalen Duren assists)IND 103 – 102 DET · DET 24% → 38% +14DET 24% → 38%+14 pts
- Q42:55Bennedict Mathurin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 106 – 102 DET · IND 62% → 83% +21IND 62% → 83%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- IND -5.5
- ML IND -215 / DET +180
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1.5
- IND 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- IND: Elo 55.8%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- IND -191
- DET +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 120.5 – 115.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −41 | +19 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +40 Elo | IND 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 52.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 109.927th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 119.026th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | −9.128th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 107.728th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 116.725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Pace | 101.59th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 7–3329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 4–0 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.