Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints26
- Kyle KuzmaAssists7
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds11
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints29
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–119
- Q40.0Hawks offensive team rebound121–119
- Q40.2Trae Young misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot121–119
- Q46.2Corey Kispert makes free throw 2 of 2121–119
- Q46.2Hawks delay of game violation120–119
- Q46.2Wizards offensive team rebound120–119
- Q46.2Corey Kispert misses free throw 1 of 2120–119
- Q46.2Garrison Mathews personal take foul120–119
- Q48.1Dyson Daniels makes 26-foot three pointer (Jalen Johnson assists)120–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:13Corey Kispert makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 92 – 88 ATL · WSH 44% → 58% +14WSH 44% → 58%+14 pts
- Q48:56Garrison Mathews makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)WSH 92 – 91 ATL · ATL 41% → 56% +14ATL 41% → 56%+14 pts
- Q48:42Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot three pointerWSH 95 – 91 ATL · WSH 44% → 59% +15WSH 44% → 59%+15 pts
- Q48:30Larry Nance Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)WSH 95 – 94 ATL · ATL 41% → 55% +15ATL 41% → 55%+15 pts
- Q48.1Dyson Daniels makes 26-foot three pointer (Jalen Johnson assists)WSH 120 – 119 ATL · ATL <1% → 17% +17ATL <1% → 17%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -7.5
- ML WSH +260 / ATL -320
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.7%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -274
- WSH +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 113.5 – 121.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −31 | −41 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Onyeka Okongwu −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +83 Elo | ATL 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 118.35th of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.0 | Points allowed | 120.528th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.3 | Margin | −2.221st of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 115.112th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 117.327th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.4 | Pace | 101.95th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 29th of 308–33 | Road vs home | 21–2019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−41 Elo- Onyeka Okongwu toe injury−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–3 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.