Los Angeles Lakers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints38
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints33
- RJ BarrettAssists12
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–125
- Q42.1RJ Barrett makes layup131–125
- Q47.1Bronny James enters the game for Anthony Davis131–123
- Q47.1D'Angelo Russell personal foul131–123
- Q49.1Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2131–123
- Q49.1Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2130–123
- Q49.1Ja'Kobe Walter personal foul129–123
- Q413.0D'Angelo Russell enters the game for Max Christie129–123
- Q413.0Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Jakob Poeltl129–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:43LeBron James makes 23-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 3 – 0 TOR · LAL 77% → 82% +4LAL 77% → 82%+4 pts
- Q34:25RJ Barrett makes 24-foot three point shot (Gradey Dick assists)LAL 89 – 81 TOR · TOR 8% → 13% +5TOR 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q411:02Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point shot (RJ Barrett assists)LAL 99 – 91 TOR · TOR 6% → 11% +5TOR 6% → 11%+5 pts
- Q410:30LeBron James makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dalton Knecht assists)LAL 102 – 91 TOR · LAL 89% → 94% +5LAL 89% → 94%+5 pts
- Q47:20Rui Hachimura makes 22-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 109 – 98 TOR · LAL 91% → 96% +5LAL 91% → 96%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -9.5
- ML LAL -425 / TOR +320
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -5
- LAL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 69.9%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -340
- TOR +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 120.5 – 111.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1397 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −31 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +147 Elo | LAL 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 70.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 116.010th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 124.029th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−2.0 | Margin | −8.026th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 110.116th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 117.729th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.6 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–1 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–0 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.