Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints26
- D'Angelo RussellAssists5
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints25
- Darius GarlandAssists10
- Jarrett AllenRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–134
- Q49.0Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound110–134
- Q411.2Dalton Knecht misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot110–134
- Q421.1Ty Jerome makes 16-foot jumper110–134
- Q435.1Max Christie makes 23-foot three point jumper110–132
- Q446.1Ty Jerome makes 29-foot three pointer107–132
- Q452.1Ty Jerome defensive rebound107–129
- Q455.2Bronny James misses 25-foot three point jumper107–129
- Q41:08Tristan Thompson makes 1-foot two point shot (Jaylon Tyson assists)107–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:30Donovan Mitchell makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Darius Garland assists)LAL 6 – 5 CLE · CLE 53% → 59% +6CLE 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q18:30Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three pointer (Anthony Davis assists)LAL 13 – 11 CLE · LAL 37% → 43% +6LAL 37% → 43%+6 pts
- Q18:02Dean Wade makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)LAL 13 – 14 CLE · CLE 57% → 63% +6CLE 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q17:13Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 15 – 17 CLE · CLE 59% → 65% +6CLE 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q16:55Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point shot (Caris LeVert assists)LAL 15 – 20 CLE · CLE 65% → 71% +6CLE 65% → 71%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML LAL +150 / CLE -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1.5
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.7%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -159
- LAL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 111.0 – 115.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | +27 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +47 Elo | CLE 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 123.53rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 106.84th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.5 | Margin | +16.83rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 104.24th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.4 | Pace | 102.214th of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 2–0 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.