Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints34
- Donovan MitchellAssists5
- Jarrett AllenRebounds15
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints21
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Josh HartRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–104
- Q40.1Knicks offensive team rebound110–104
- Q40.1Jalen Brunson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot110–104
- Q44.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2110–104
- Q44.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2109–104
- Q44.1Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns108–104
- Q44.1Karl-Anthony Towns personal take foul108–104
- Q46.1Karl-Anthony Towns makes 1-foot layup (Miles McBride assists)108–104
- Q47.2Knicks Full timeout108–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:31Georges Niang makes 22-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)CLE 81 – 80 NY · CLE 38% → 51% +13CLE 38% → 51%+13 pts
- Q49:50Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 84 – 80 NY · CLE 51% → 65% +13CLE 51% → 65%+13 pts
- Q47:14Miles McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)CLE 86 – 87 NY · NY 42% → 58% +16NY 42% → 58%+16 pts
- Q46:34Darius Garland makes 23-foot three point shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 89 – 87 NY · CLE 42% → 59% +17CLE 42% → 59%+17 pts
- Q44:27Darius Garland makes 24-foot three pointer (Dean Wade assists)CLE 96 – 91 NY · CLE 61% → 79% +18CLE 61% → 79%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -2.5
- ML CLE +125 / NY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- NY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- NY: Elo 52.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -133
- CLE +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 109.5 – 112.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −7 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +18 Elo | NY 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 112.819th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 108.22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +4.65th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 115.87th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 97.230th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–2 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.