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Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

FinalIND wins series 4-2

Away

Pacers

1-1

98–123

at

Home

Knicks

1-1

IND 36%NY 64%

You didn't pick this one.

Madison Square Garden · ESPN, MSG, FanDuel SN IN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.

NY favored IND favored121 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4NY50%IND

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Pacers
Knicks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game98–123
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–123
  • Q41.0shot clock turnover98–123
  • Q423.1Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound98–123
  • Q425.1Johnny Furphy misses 7-foot two point shot98–123
  • Q441.1Tyler Kolek kicked ball violation98–123
  • Q450.1Tyler Kolek makes free throw 2 of 298–123
  • Q450.1Tyler Kolek makes free throw 1 of 298–122
  • Q450.1Enrique Freeman shooting foul98–121
  • Q41:08James Johnson out of bounds lost ball turnover98–121

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q11:16OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)IND 20 – 24 NY · NY 65% → 71% +6
  2. Q210:30Jarace Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 29 – 29 NY · IND 31% → 38% +7
  3. Q210:12Miles McBride makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Mikal Bridges assists)IND 29 – 32 NY · NY 62% → 69% +7
  4. Q29:48Bennedict Mathurin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)IND 32 – 32 NY · IND 31% → 38% +7
  5. Q26:14Cameron Payne makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)IND 37 – 43 NY · NY 69% → 75% +7

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Knicks 64%

SolidHit
IND 36%NY 64%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
NY -4.5
ML IND +170 / NY -205
Pre-line forecast
NY 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -0.5
NY 52%
Ratings vs. market
−12.5 pts
NY: Elo 52.0%, market 64.5%
Fair odds
NY -181
IND +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
IND 112.5 – 117.0 NY
Posted spread, posted total 229.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorINDNYWhy
Team rating15461531Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−6−13IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsNY +14 EloNY 52.0%
Market-implied ratingsNY 54.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 54.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNY 64.5%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
INDStatNY
1st of 30123.1Points scored112.819th of 30
27th of 30120.3Points allowed108.22nd of 30
10th of 30+2.8Margin+4.65th of 30
2nd of 30118.7Offense rating115.87th of 30
24th of 30115.9Defense rating111.17th of 30
2nd of 30103.6Pace97.230th of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 106–410th of 30
15th of 3021–20Road vs home27–148th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Pacers

−6 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Knicks

−13 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PacersKnicks
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

IND 6–4 NY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.