Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints29
- D'Angelo RussellAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Suns- Devin BookerPoints33
- Tyus JonesAssists5
- Mason PlumleeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–109
- Q40.0Lakers offensive team rebound105–109
- Q40.0Austin Reaves misses 75-foot three point jumper105–109
- Q40.1Bradley Beal makes free throw 2 of 2105–109
- Q40.1Ryan Dunn enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic105–108
- Q40.1Bradley Beal makes free throw 1 of 2105–108
- Q40.1Austin Reaves personal take foul105–107
- Q40.2Royce O'Neale defensive rebound105–107
- Q46.1LeBron James misses free throw 2 of 2105–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:59Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point shot (Tyus Jones assists)LAL 92 – 93 PHX · PHX 42% → 59% +18PHX 42% → 59%+18 pts
- Q44:17Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three pointerLAL 97 – 97 PHX · LAL 27% → 47% +20LAL 27% → 47%+20 pts
- Q43:03Kevin Durant makes 15-foot pullup jump shotLAL 101 – 103 PHX · PHX 53% → 68% +16PHX 53% → 68%+16 pts
- Q41:58LeBron James makes 24-foot three point jumperLAL 104 – 105 PHX · LAL 14% → 38% +24LAL 14% → 38%+24 pts
- Q41:25Royce O'Neale makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (Bradley Beal assists)LAL 104 – 107 PHX · PHX 64% → 83% +19PHX 64% → 83%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -4.5
- ML LAL +140 / PHX -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1
- PHX 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.4 pts
- PHX: Elo 45.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHX -149
- LAL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 112.5 – 117.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | −19 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +31 Elo | LAL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 51.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.3 | Points scored | 115.310th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 112.713th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.0 | Margin | +2.79th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 111.69th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 109.011th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.0 | Pace | 100.324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 4–2 PHX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.