Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints28
- Domantas SabonisAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds16
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints27
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–110
- Q40.0Heat offensive team rebound111–110
- Q40.1Terry Rozier misses 29-foot three point jumper111–110
- Q40.1Keon Ellis enters the game for DeMar DeRozan111–110
- Q40.1Alex Len enters the game for Malik Monk111–110
- Q40.1Heat Full timeout111–110
- Q40.1Domantas Sabonis makes 9-foot two point shot111–110
- Q42.0Domantas Sabonis offensive rebound109–110
- Q43.1De'Aaron Fox misses 10-foot two point shot109–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:49Terry Rozier makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jimmy Butler assists)SAC 96 – 99 MIA · MIA 51% → 72% +21MIA 51% → 72%+21 pts
- Q43:30Domantas Sabonis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 99 – 99 MIA · SAC 28% → 49% +22SAC 28% → 49%+22 pts
- Q41:44Jimmy Butler makes 23-foot three point jumperSAC 101 – 105 MIA · MIA 61% → 87% +25MIA 61% → 87%+25 pts
- Q432.0Malik Monk makes 3-foot driving dunk (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 109 – 110 MIA · SAC 7% → 31% +24SAC 7% → 31%+24 pts
- Q40.1Domantas Sabonis makes 9-foot two point shotSAC 111 – 110 MIA · SAC 0% → 100% +100SAC 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -0.5
- ML SAC +100 / MIA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -0.5
- MIA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 47.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -109
- SAC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 112.0 – 112.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +60 | +8 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Kevin Love −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +19 Elo | SAC 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 108.423rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 106.85th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +1.612th of 30 |
| 5th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 110.615th of 30 |
| 12th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 108.913th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.5 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+8 Elo- Kevin Love return to competition reconditioning−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 0–2 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.