Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints24
- Cade CunninghamAssists6
- Isaiah StewartRebounds15
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints23
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–106
- Q45.2shot clock turnover98–106
- Q429.1Tyler Herro defensive rebound98–106
- Q431.1Tobias Harris misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot98–106
- Q438.0Terry Rozier personal foul98–106
- Q446.1Jimmy Butler makes 3-foot two point shot98–106
- Q41:05Jaden Ivey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)98–104
- Q41:07Cade Cunningham offensive rebound95–104
- Q41:09Jaden Ivey misses 25-foot three point jumper95–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:02Nikola Jovic makes 23-foot three point shot (Bam Adebayo assists)DET 65 – 69 MIA · MIA 70% → 78% +8MIA 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q36:39Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)DET 68 – 69 MIA · DET 22% → 30% +8DET 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q33:23Jaden Ivey makes 23-foot three point jumperDET 75 – 73 MIA · DET 31% → 42% +10DET 31% → 42%+10 pts
- Q316.0Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)DET 79 – 78 MIA · MIA 47% → 60% +12MIA 47% → 60%+12 pts
- Q46:51Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)DET 87 – 93 MIA · MIA 75% → 86% +11MIA 75% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -8.5
- ML DET +290 / MIA -375
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4.5
- MIA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 67.2%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -308
- DET +308 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 105.5 – 114.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −14 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Kevin Love −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +125 Elo | MIA 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 73.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 110.126th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 108.43rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.1 | Margin | +1.816th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 110.55th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.5 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 307–35 | Road vs home | 22–1917th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−14 Elo- Kevin Love not with team−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–4 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.