Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints37
- Jaylen BrownAssists5
- Jaylen BrownRebounds10
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Tobias HarrisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–118
- Q40.0Pistons offensive team rebound124–118
- Q41.1Cade Cunningham misses 47-foot three point pullup jump shot124–118
- Q43.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2124–118
- Q43.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2123–118
- Q43.1Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.122–118
- Q43.1Tobias Harris personal take foul122–118
- Q44.1Celtics defensive team rebound122–118
- Q46.1Malik Beasley misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot122–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:32Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 109 – 112 DET · BOS 20% → 39% +19BOS 20% → 39%+19 pts
- Q42:57Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 112 – 112 DET · BOS 36% → 61% +25BOS 36% → 61%+25 pts
- Q42:13Jayson Tatum makes 2-foot layup (Derrick White assists)BOS 114 – 112 DET · BOS 59% → 76% +17BOS 59% → 76%+17 pts
- Q41:47Jaden Ivey makes 3-foot two point shotBOS 114 – 114 DET · DET 23% → 42% +19DET 23% → 42%+19 pts
- Q421.1Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)BOS 118 – 117 DET · DET <1% → 24% +24DET <1% → 24%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -12.5
- ML BOS -900 / DET +600
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7.5
- BOS 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 76.8%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -630
- DET +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 118.5 – 106.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1630 | 1391 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −15 | +20 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +208 Elo | BOS 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 80.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 80.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 109.927th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 119.026th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.3 | Margin | −9.128th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 107.728th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 116.725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3098.8 | Pace | 101.59th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–14 | Road vs home | 7–3329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.