Miami Heat at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints32
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists4
- Bam AdebayoRebounds14
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints22
- Bub CarringtonAssists8
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–98
- Q40.0Haywood Highsmith defensive rebound118–98
- Q40.0Jared Butler misses driving layup118–98
- Q410.2shot clock turnover118–98
- Q410.2Heat offensive team rebound118–98
- Q412.1Kel'el Ware misses 20-foot jumper118–98
- Q436.0Johnny Davis makes 3-foot two point shot (Jared Butler assists)118–98
- Q447.1Kel'el Ware makes 9-foot jumper118–96
- Q457.0Kel'el Ware defensive rebound116–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:38Bam Adebayo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)MIA 5 – 2 WSH · MIA 78% → 82% +4MIA 78% → 82%+4 pts
- Q19:17Nikola Jovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 11 – 4 WSH · MIA 83% → 87% +4MIA 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q16:46Tyler Herro makes 28-foot three pointerMIA 18 – 10 WSH · MIA 84% → 88% +4MIA 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q210:06Bam Adebayo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Richardson assists)MIA 36 – 27 WSH · MIA 85% → 89% +4MIA 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q311:17Terry Rozier makes 25-foot three pointer (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 59 – 48 WSH · MIA 87% → 91% +4MIA 87% → 91%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -9.5
- ML MIA -450 / WSH +340
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5.5
- MIA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 70.0%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -360
- WSH +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 117.0 – 107.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | +7 | −20 | MIA: Missing Kevin Love −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +147 Elo | MIA 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 75.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30106.0 | Points scored | 118.09th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.0 | Points allowed | 124.029th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−3.0 | Margin | −6.023rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 110.219th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 115.826th of 30 |
| 29th of 3096.4 | Pace | 106.92nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+7 Elo- Kevin Love not with team−2 Elo
Wizards
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–1 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.