New York Knicks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints44
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Josh HartRebounds14
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints34
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–107
- Q43.0shot clock turnover116–107
- Q427.0Tyler Herro makes 24-foot three pointer (Nikola Jovic assists)116–107
- Q447.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2116–104
- Q447.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2115–104
- Q447.1Tyler Herro personal foul114–104
- Q41:00OG Anunoby defensive rebound114–104
- Q41:03Terry Rozier misses 20-foot step back jumpshot114–104
- Q41:075 second violation114–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:34Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 79 – 77 MIA · NY 48% → 59% +11NY 48% → 59%+11 pts
- Q48:30Terry Rozier makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)NY 93 – 89 MIA · MIA 18% → 30% +11MIA 18% → 30%+11 pts
- Q47:04Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 97 – 91 MIA · NY 67% → 80% +13NY 67% → 80%+13 pts
- Q46:55Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)NY 97 – 94 MIA · MIA 20% → 33% +13MIA 20% → 33%+13 pts
- Q45:58Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 102 – 96 MIA · NY 68% → 82% +14NY 68% → 82%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML NY -125 / MIA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -0.5
- NY 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- NY: Elo 47.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 108.0 – 106.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +4 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Kevin Love −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +20 Elo | MIA 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 105.729th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 106.73rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −1.013th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 108.321st of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.5 | Defense rating | 109.311th of 30 |
| 30th of 3095.5 | Pace | 97.129th of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+4 Elo- Kevin Love personal−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 2–1 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.