Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Gradey DickPoints26
- RJ BarrettAssists10
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds11
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints28
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–121
- Q40.0Raptors offensive team rebound119–121
- Q40.1RJ Barrett misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot119–121
- Q45.1Raptors Full timeout119–121
- Q45.1Peyton Watson personal take foul119–121
- Q411.1Jamison Battle enters the game for Davion Mitchell119–121
- Q411.1Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Julian Strawther119–121
- Q411.1Raptors Full timeout119–121
- Q411.1Julian Strawther makes free throw 2 of 2119–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:38Christian Braun makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)TOR 115 – 113 DEN · DEN 18% → 41% +22DEN 18% → 41%+22 pts
- Q42:00Nikola Jokic makes 3-foot two point shotTOR 117 – 115 DEN · DEN 20% → 37% +17DEN 20% → 37%+17 pts
- Q41:41Peyton Watson makes 24-foot three point shot (Michael Porter Jr. assists)TOR 117 – 118 DEN · DEN 35% → 67% +32DEN 35% → 67%+32 pts
- Q41:25Ochai Agbaji makes driving layup (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 119 – 118 DEN · TOR 32% → 56% +24TOR 32% → 56%+24 pts
- Q41:09Julian Strawther makes 1-foot two point shot (Michael Porter Jr. assists)TOR 119 – 120 DEN · DEN 42% → 68% +26DEN 42% → 68%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML TOR +400 / DEN -600
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6
- DEN 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 72.2%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -429
- TOR +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 110.0 – 121.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | −37 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +166 Elo | DEN 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 78.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 78.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 117.87th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.6 | Points allowed | 116.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−6.1 | Margin | +1.712th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 112.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 111.317th of 30 |
| 5th of 30104.1 | Pace | 100.819th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–1 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–1 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | — | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–1 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–3 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.