Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints31
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Aaron GordonRebounds11
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints29
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–119
- Q40.1Aaron Gordon offensive rebound116–119
- Q42.1Nikola Jokic misses 22-foot three point step back jumpshot116–119
- Q410.0Rudy Gobert makes free throw 2 of 2116–119
- Q410.0Julian Strawther enters the game for Christian Braun116–118
- Q410.0Rudy Gobert makes free throw 1 of 2116–118
- Q410.0Christian Braun personal foul116–117
- Q410.1Rudy Gobert defensive rebound116–117
- Q412.0Aaron Gordon misses tip shot116–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:26Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumperDEN 102 – 102 MIN · DEN 31% → 46% +15DEN 31% → 46%+15 pts
- Q42:22Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)DEN 116 – 112 MIN · MIN 6% → 19% +13MIN 6% → 19%+13 pts
- Q41:51Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three pointerDEN 116 – 115 MIN · MIN 15% → 41% +26MIN 15% → 41%+26 pts
- Q425.1Anthony Edwards makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotDEN 116 – 117 MIN · MIN 30% → 72% +42MIN 30% → 72%+42 pts
- Q410.0Rudy Gobert makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 116 – 118 MIN · MIN 82% → 96% +15MIN 82% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML DEN +135 / MIN -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- DEN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 108.0 – 111.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | −10 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +54 Elo | MIN 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 111.520th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 111.512th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−3.3 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 111.311th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 111.314th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.8 | Pace | 100.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 5–6 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.
- May 19MIN 98 @ DEN 90PlayoffsPicked DEN 52%Miss
- May 16DEN 70 @ MIN 115PlayoffsPicked MIN 51%Hit
- May 14MIN 97 @ DEN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 57%Hit
- May 12DEN 115 @ MIN 107PlayoffsPicked MIN 56%Miss
- May 10DEN 117 @ MIN 90PlayoffsPicked MIN 62%Miss
- May 6MIN 106 @ DEN 80PlayoffsPicked DEN 59%Miss
- May 4MIN 106 @ DEN 99PlayoffsPicked DEN 58%Miss
- Apr 10MIN 107 @ DEN 116Picked DEN 55%Hit