Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints35
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds9
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints37
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Naz ReidRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–114
- Q47.0Mavericks defensive team rebound120–114
- Q49.0Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot120–114
- Q412.1Timberwolves Full timeout120–114
- Q412.1Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2120–114
- Q412.1Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 2119–114
- Q412.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker personal take foul118–114
- Q413.0Anthony Edwards lost ball turnover (Naji Marshall steals)118–114
- Q418.0Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound118–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:09Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)DAL 103 – 98 MIN · MIN 14% → 26% +12MIN 14% → 26%+12 pts
- Q44:04Jaden McDaniels makes layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)DAL 107 – 104 MIN · MIN 21% → 32% +12MIN 21% → 32%+12 pts
- Q43:52P.J. Washington makes alley oop dunk shot (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 109 – 104 MIN · DAL 68% → 80% +12DAL 68% → 80%+12 pts
- Q42:31Kyrie Irving makes 24-foot three pointerDAL 112 – 107 MIN · DAL 65% → 86% +21DAL 65% → 86%+21 pts
- Q41:58Luka Doncic makes 2-foot two point shot (P.J. Washington assists)DAL 114 – 109 MIN · DAL 76% → 89% +13DAL 76% → 89%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML DAL +145 / MIN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -156
- DAL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 108.0 – 112.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1582 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +2 | −10 | DAL: Usual rotation · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +65 Elo | MIN 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 110.720th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.3 | Points allowed | 108.78th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +2.012th of 30 |
| 16th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 109.614th of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.5 | Defense rating | 107.68th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.319th of 30 |
| 20th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 5–4 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- May 30DAL 124 @ MIN 103PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- May 28MIN 105 @ DAL 100PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Miss
- May 26MIN 107 @ DAL 116PlayoffsPicked DAL 55%Hit
- May 24DAL 109 @ MIN 108PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- May 22DAL 108 @ MIN 105PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- Jan 31DAL 87 @ MIN 121Picked MIN 80%Hit
- Jan 7MIN 108 @ DAL 115Picked MIN 52%Miss
- Dec 28DAL 110 @ MIN 118Picked MIN 79%Hit