Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints29
- Nikola JokicAssists16
- Nikola JokicRebounds18
Nets- Dennis SchroderPoints28
- Dennis SchroderAssists14
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game144–139
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime144–139
- OT0.0(00:00) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)144–139
- OT0.0Dorian Finney-Smith makes driving layup144–139
- OT3.1Jalen Wilson offensive rebound144–137
- OT6.1Cam Thomas misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot144–137
- OT13.1Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2144–137
- OT13.1Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2143–137
- OT13.1Cam Thomas personal take foul142–137
- OT17.1Nuggets Full timeout142–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:17Aaron Gordon makes 22-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 121 – 120 BKN · DEN 35% → 63% +28DEN 35% → 63%+28 pts
- Q41:23Cam Thomas makes driving layup (Cameron Johnson assists)DEN 121 – 122 BKN · BKN 35% → 59% +24BKN 35% → 59%+24 pts
- Q433.1Cam Thomas makes 9-foot two point shot (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)DEN 121 – 124 BKN · BKN 67% → 92% +25BKN 67% → 92%+25 pts
- Q425.0Nikola Jokic makes tip shotDEN 123 – 124 BKN · DEN 5% → 30% +25DEN 5% → 30%+25 pts
- Q48.1Nikola Jokic makes 4-foot hook shotDEN 125 – 125 BKN · DEN 3% → 51% +48DEN 3% → 51%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -5.5
- ML DEN -220 / BKN +190
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- DEN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 59.7%, market 66.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -199
- BKN +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 112.0 – 106.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +3 | −69 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +69 Elo | DEN 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 65.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 66.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.0 | Points scored | 110.720th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 112.714th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−6.0 | Margin | −2.015th of 30 |
| 29th of 30101.5 | Offense rating | 109.115th of 30 |
| 7th of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 111.016th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.516th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 2–0 BKN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.