Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints24
- Dennis SchroderAssists6
- Ziaire WilliamsRebounds7
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints29
- Paolo BancheroAssists9
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–116
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound101–116
- Q40.0Anthony Black blocks Keon Johnson 's 23-foot three point jumper101–116
- Q43.2Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2101–116
- Q43.2Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2101–115
- Q43.2Keon Johnson personal foul101–114
- Q45.2Noah Clowney makes two point shot (Shake Milton assists)101–114
- Q48.0Franz Wagner lost ball turnover (Noah Clowney steals)99–114
- Q425.0Keon Johnson makes driving layup (Ziaire Williams assists)99–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:22Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 53 – 52 ORL · ORL 63% → 71% +8ORL 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q39:40Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)BKN 53 – 55 ORL · ORL 70% → 78% +7ORL 70% → 78%+7 pts
- Q38:05Dorian Finney-Smith makes 26-foot three point shot (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 58 – 59 ORL · BKN 18% → 25% +7BKN 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q35:47Cam Thomas makes 24-foot three pointerBKN 63 – 61 ORL · BKN 26% → 35% +9BKN 26% → 35%+9 pts
- Q34:42Franz Wagner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)BKN 65 – 68 ORL · ORL 71% → 79% +8ORL 71% → 79%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -11.5
- ML BKN +425 / ORL -650
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -6.5
- ORL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- ORL: Elo 73.6%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- ORL -455
- BKN +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 101.5 – 113.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −78 | −16 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +178 Elo | ORL 73.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 73.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 110.524th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 108.44th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.9 | Margin | +2.015th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 111.522nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 109.52nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.6 | Pace | 98.625th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–28 | Road vs home | 29–116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 2–2 ORL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.