Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints22
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints32
- Dennis SchroderAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–115
- Q420.1AJ Johnson makes 2-foot two point shot102–115
- Q429.0Jaylen Martin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shake Milton assists)100–115
- Q444.0MarJon Beauchamp out of bounds lost ball turnover100–112
- Q456.1Yongxi Cui makes free throw 2 of 2100–112
- Q456.1Nets offensive team rebound100–111
- Q456.1Yongxi Cui misses free throw 1 of 2100–111
- Q456.1Andre Jackson Jr. shooting foul100–111
- Q459.0Dariq Whitehead defensive rebound100–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:23Noah Clowney makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)MIL 75 – 77 BKN · BKN 31% → 42% +11BKN 31% → 42%+11 pts
- Q31:41Dennis Schroder makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)MIL 77 – 80 BKN · BKN 35% → 47% +11BKN 35% → 47%+11 pts
- Q37.2Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three pointerMIL 78 – 83 BKN · BKN 44% → 56% +12BKN 44% → 56%+12 pts
- Q411:12Bobby Portis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 81 – 83 BKN · MIL 42% → 55% +13MIL 42% → 55%+13 pts
- Q48:38Cam Thomas makes 27-foot three pointer (Dennis Schroder assists)MIL 85 – 94 BKN · BKN 67% → 79% +12BKN 67% → 79%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -8.5
- ML MIL -400 / BKN +300
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4
- MIL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 66.4%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -320
- BKN +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 118.0 – 109.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | −80 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +118 Elo | MIL 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 70.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 110.425th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 113.315th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −2.922nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 111.223rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 114.120th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.623rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 20–2122nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 3–0 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.