Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Walker KesslerPoints18
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds14
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–129
- Q42.0Spencer Jones defensive rebound103–129
- Q46.0Cody Williams misses 11-foot step back jumpshot103–129
- Q418.0Zeke Nnaji makes 1-foot dunk (Hunter Tyson assists)103–129
- Q420.0Kyle Filipowski bad pass (Spencer Jones steals)103–127
- Q432.1Trey Alexander makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (Zeke Nnaji assists)103–127
- Q443.1Walker Kessler makes free throw 2 of 2103–125
- Q443.1Walker Kessler makes free throw 1 of 2102–125
- Q443.1Zeke Nnaji shooting foul101–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:45Cody Williams makes 4-foot two point shotUTAH 42 – 42 DEN · UTAH 20% → 23% +4UTAH 20% → 23%+4 pts
- Q27:36Christian Braun makes layup (Nikola Jokic assists)UTAH 42 – 44 DEN · DEN 77% → 80% +4DEN 77% → 80%+4 pts
- Q26:32Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)UTAH 42 – 47 DEN · DEN 80% → 85% +5DEN 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q26:05Christian Braun makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)UTAH 42 – 50 DEN · DEN 85% → 89% +4DEN 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q36:04Johnny Juzang makes 28-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 68 – 77 DEN · UTAH 6% → 9% +4UTAH 6% → 9%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -10.5
- ML UTAH +415 / DEN -575
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6.5
- DEN 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- DEN: Elo 74.7%, market 81.4%
- Fair odds
- DEN -439
- UTAH +439 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 105.5 – 116.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1373 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −64 | −35 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +188 Elo | DEN 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 81.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3099.2 | Points scored | 115.614th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 118.824th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−17.2 | Margin | −3.218th of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.1 | Offense rating | 111.114th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 114.121st of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.9 | Pace | 99.725th of 30 |
| 28th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 0–225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | — | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–3 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.