San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints25
- Chris PaulAssists10
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints16
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists5
- John CollinsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–88
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–88
- Q413.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2106–88
- Q413.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2106–87
- Q413.1Sidy Cissoko shooting foul106–86
- Q423.1Stephon Castle makes 27-foot three pointer (Sidy Cissoko assists)106–86
- Q426.1Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Victor Wembanyama103–86
- Q426.1Blake Wesley enters the game for Chris Paul103–86
- Q426.1Charles Bassey enters the game for Jeremy Sochan103–86
- Q426.1Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Keldon Johnson103–86
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:00Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SA 32 – 32 UTAH · SA 47% → 55% +8SA 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q28:20Brice Sensabaugh makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)SA 32 – 37 UTAH · UTAH 50% → 58% +8UTAH 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q22:36Keldon Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 43 – 49 UTAH · SA 30% → 38% +8SA 30% → 38%+8 pts
- Q36:15Kyle Filipowski makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)SA 63 – 58 UTAH · UTAH 22% → 31% +8UTAH 22% → 31%+8 pts
- Q35:50Keyonte George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cody Williams assists)SA 63 – 61 UTAH · UTAH 30% → 40% +9UTAH 30% → 40%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -2.5
- ML SA -140 / UTAH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1.5
- SA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- SA: Elo 55.1%, market 55.6%
- Fair odds
- SA -125
- UTAH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 111.5 – 109.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −14 | −71 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +36 Elo | SA 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 55.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30103.0 | Points scored | 102.030th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 119.024th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.3 | Margin | −17.030th of 30 |
| 29th of 30103.4 | Offense rating | 98.530th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 114.923rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.6 | Pace | 103.27th of 30 |
| 26th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 0–325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 1–2 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.