Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints29
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds7
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints29
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Jeremy SochanRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–109
- Q41.0Keldon Johnson defensive rebound106–109
- Q43.1Jalen Green misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot106–109
- Q47.0Stephon Castle makes free throw 2 of 2106–109
- Q47.0Spurs offensive team rebound106–108
- Q47.0Stephon Castle misses free throw 1 of 2106–108
- Q47.0Jabari Smith Jr. personal take foul106–108
- Q47.1Fred VanVleet makes 2-foot two point shot (Dillon Brooks assists)106–108
- Q411.1Fred VanVleet enters the game for Tari Eason104–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:40Dillon Brooks makes 5-foot two point shotHOU 94 – 98 SA · HOU 16% → 26% +10HOU 16% → 26%+10 pts
- Q44:05Jalen Green makes 2-foot two point shotHOU 96 – 98 SA · HOU 24% → 37% +12HOU 24% → 37%+12 pts
- Q43:33Jalen Green makes 1-foot two point shotHOU 98 – 100 SA · HOU 23% → 36% +13HOU 23% → 36%+13 pts
- Q41:35Jeremy Sochan makes 2-foot layup (Chris Paul assists)HOU 99 – 104 SA · SA 80% → 92% +12SA 80% → 92%+12 pts
- Q41:24Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 102 – 104 SA · HOU 7% → 28% +21HOU 7% → 28%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -1.5
- ML HOU -125 / SA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- SA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 112.5 – 111.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +33 | −4 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +27 Elo | HOU 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 112.123rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 118.624th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −6.525th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 108.226th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.9 | Pace | 102.83rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3014–27 | Road vs home | 12–2925th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–1 SA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.