Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints24
- Desmond BaneAssists4
- Zach EdeyRebounds9
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints22
- Jalen GreenAssists4
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–128
- Q413.0shot clock turnover108–128
- Q436.1Nate Williams defensive rebound108–128
- Q438.2Jaylen Wells misses 24-foot three point jumper108–128
- Q452.0Cam Whitmore makes two point shot (Jae'Sean Tate assists)108–128
- Q454.1Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound108–126
- Q456.0Brandon Clarke misses 9-foot two point shot108–126
- Q41:03John Konchar defensive rebound108–126
- Q41:05Reed Sheppard misses 24-foot three point jumper108–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:28Ja Morant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)MEM 46 – 40 HOU · MEM 49% → 56% +7MEM 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q25:41Jalen Green makes 25-foot three pointerMEM 53 – 45 HOU · HOU 30% → 37% +7HOU 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q24:04Jalen Green makes 24-foot three point shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)MEM 57 – 48 HOU · HOU 27% → 34% +7HOU 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q23:34Jalen Green makes 25-foot three pointerMEM 57 – 51 HOU · HOU 34% → 41% +8HOU 34% → 41%+8 pts
- Q36:56Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)MEM 76 – 72 HOU · HOU 34% → 43% +9HOU 34% → 43%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML MEM +140 / HOU -170
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5.5
- HOU 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 70.7%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -151
- MEM +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 111.5 – 115.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | +27 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +153 Elo | HOU 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 65.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.8 | Points scored | 114.316th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 113.214th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.0 | Margin | +1.118th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 112.321st of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 16th of 3099.9 | Pace | 100.913th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 1–3 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.