Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints36
- Fred VanVleetAssists9
- Alperen SengunRebounds12
Spurs- Jeremy SochanPoints22
- Victor WembanyamaAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–101
- Q40.0Victor Wembanyama makes dunk106–101
- Q40.0Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound106–99
- Q40.0Victor Wembanyama misses dunk106–99
- Q44.1Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound106–99
- Q44.1Chris Paul misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot106–99
- Q410.1Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 2106–99
- Q410.1Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2105–99
- Q410.1Jeremy Sochan personal foul104–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:52Jalen Green makes driving layupHOU 90 – 86 SA · HOU 63% → 72% +9HOU 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q45:47Jalen Green makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 94 – 86 SA · HOU 79% → 90% +11HOU 79% → 90%+11 pts
- Q44:41Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 94 – 89 SA · SA 8% → 19% +11SA 8% → 19%+11 pts
- Q42:58Jabari Smith Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 97 – 91 SA · HOU 75% → 90% +15HOU 75% → 90%+15 pts
- Q435.1Victor Wembanyama makes 13-foot two point shotHOU 101 – 99 SA · SA 3% → 17% +14SA 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML HOU -140 / SA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -128
- SA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 111.5 – 109.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −6 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +51 Elo | HOU 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 112.123rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 118.624th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −6.525th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 108.226th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.9 | Pace | 102.83rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3014–27 | Road vs home | 12–2925th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.