San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Harrison BarnesPoints18
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Jeremy SochanRebounds9
Thunder- Luguentz DortPoints20
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–105
- Q413.2Blake Wesley makes two point shot93–105
- Q429.0Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound91–105
- Q431.1Ousmane Dieng misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot91–105
- Q446.0Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound91–105
- Q447.2Sandro Mamukelashvili misses two point shot91–105
- Q448.1Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound91–105
- Q451.0Blake Wesley misses free throw 2 of 291–105
- Q451.0Blake Wesley makes free throw 1 of 291–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:57Luguentz Dort makes 24-foot three point shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)SA 8 – 7 OKC · OKC 79% → 83% +4OKC 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q18:18Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)SA 10 – 10 OKC · OKC 80% → 85% +4OKC 80% → 85%+4 pts
- Q34:27Harrison Barnes makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 67 – 75 OKC · SA 5% → 9% +4SA 5% → 9%+4 pts
- Q32:33Keldon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumperSA 70 – 77 OKC · SA 6% → 11% +4SA 6% → 11%+4 pts
- Q410:23Malaki Branham makes 25-foot three point shot (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)SA 75 – 82 OKC · SA 5% → 10% +5SA 5% → 10%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -12.5
- ML SA +550 / OKC -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7.5
- OKC 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- OKC: Elo 77.4%, market 85.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -591
- SA +591 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 104.0 – 116.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1611 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +5 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +213 Elo | OKC 77.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 79.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 79.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 85.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30106.3 | Points scored | 114.714th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 95.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−4.3 | Margin | +19.32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 106.025th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 88.21st of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.7 | Pace | 108.12nd of 30 |
| 25th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 1–3 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.