Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints40
- Tyus JonesAssists11
- Royce O'NealeRebounds7
Clippers- James HardenPoints25
- James HardenAssists13
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–119
- Q42.1Royce O'Neale defensive rebound125–119
- Q47.0Derrick Jones Jr. misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot125–119
- Q410.0Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2125–119
- Q410.0Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2124–119
- Q410.0Nicolas Batum personal take foul123–119
- Q411.2Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)123–119
- Q411.2Nicolas Batum offensive rebound123–116
- Q415.1Norman Powell misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot123–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:45Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)PHX 99 – 102 LAC · LAC 45% → 61% +15LAC 45% → 61%+15 pts
- Q45:48James Harden makes 27-foot three pointerPHX 105 – 105 LAC · LAC 29% → 46% +17LAC 29% → 46%+17 pts
- Q45:15Devin Booker makes three point shot (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 108 – 105 LAC · PHX 54% → 72% +18PHX 54% → 72%+18 pts
- Q43:39Derrick Jones Jr. makes 2-foot layup (Terance Mann assists)PHX 108 – 107 LAC · LAC 26% → 39% +13LAC 26% → 39%+13 pts
- Q42:58Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointerPHX 113 – 107 LAC · PHX 76% → 91% +15PHX 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -4.5
- ML PHX -180 / LAC +150
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3.5
- PHX 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- PHX: Elo 63.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PHX -161
- LAC +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 112.5 – 108.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −19 | −98 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +93 Elo | PHX 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 62.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 109.823rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 107.56th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +2.39th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 106.823rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 104.64th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.1 | Pace | 99.825th of 30 |
| 11th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 0–225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−98 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 2–3 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.