Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints25
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds14
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints24
- James HardenAssists7
- James HardenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–92
- Q417.1Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound105–92
- Q419.1Bones Hyland misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot105–92
- Q431.1Ousmane Dieng makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dillon Jones assists)105–92
- Q450.1Amir Coffey makes free throw 2 of 2102–92
- Q450.1Amir Coffey makes free throw 1 of 2102–91
- Q450.1Ajay Mitchell shooting foul102–90
- Q41:07Kobe Brown defensive rebound102–90
- Q41:12Malevy Leons misses 23-foot three point jumper102–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:25Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 56 – 57 LAC · OKC 50% → 59% +9OKC 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q37:03Norman Powell makes 25-foot three pointer (James Harden assists)OKC 64 – 70 LAC · LAC 49% → 59% +10LAC 49% → 59%+10 pts
- Q35:13Cason Wallace makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 69 – 70 LAC · OKC 46% → 57% +10OKC 46% → 57%+10 pts
- Q32:59Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 76 – 74 LAC · OKC 56% → 66% +11OKC 56% → 66%+11 pts
- Q318.0Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 81 – 78 LAC · OKC 58% → 70% +11OKC 58% → 70%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -5.5
- ML OKC -225 / LAC +185
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4
- OKC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 64.7%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -197
- LAC +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 113.0 – 107.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1624 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +2 | −87 | OKC: Usual rotation · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +105 Elo | OKC 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 65.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 111.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3098.6 | Points allowed | 111.011th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+18.6 | Margin | +0.615th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 109.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 3093.6 | Defense rating | 108.78th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.3 | Pace | 99.725th of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 0–326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 2–1 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.