Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Aaron WigginsRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints17
- Anfernee SimonsAssists6
- Donovan ClinganRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game137–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter137–114
- Q422.1Dalano Banton turnover137–114
- Q422.1Dalano Banton offensive foul137–114
- Q422.1Dillon Jones makes two point shot137–114
- Q438.0Dalano Banton makes free throw 2 of 2135–114
- Q438.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound135–113
- Q438.0Dalano Banton misses free throw 1 of 2135–113
- Q438.0Malevy Leons shooting foul135–113
- Q445.1Ajay Mitchell makes 11-foot two point shot (Dillon Jones assists)135–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q257.2Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)OKC 65 – 62 POR · POR 13% → 18% +5POR 13% → 18%+5 pts
- Q21.1Jalen Williams makes 31-foot three pointerOKC 68 – 68 POR · OKC 68% → 76% +7OKC 68% → 76%+7 pts
- Q39:28Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 75 – 72 POR · OKC 74% → 81% +7OKC 74% → 81%+7 pts
- Q38:17Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point shot (Anfernee Simons assists)OKC 77 – 75 POR · POR 15% → 21% +6POR 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q35:43Aaron Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)OKC 83 – 78 POR · OKC 78% → 85% +7OKC 78% → 85%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -11.5
- ML OKC -800 / POR +475
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6.5
- OKC 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 74.3%, market 83.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -511
- POR +511 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 116.5 – 105.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1616 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −21 | OKC: Usual rotation · POR: Missing Robert Williams III −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +184 Elo | OKC 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 79.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 79.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 83.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 107.226th of 30 |
| 1st of 3094.8 | Points allowed | 112.814th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+17.5 | Margin | −5.622nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 105.027th of 30 |
| 1st of 3089.6 | Defense rating | 110.513th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.5 | Pace | 101.913th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−21 Elo- Robert Williams III left hamstring−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 4–0 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.