LA Clippers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints31
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds15
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints31
- Domantas SabonisAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–98
- Q48.0shot clock turnover107–98
- Q429.1James Harden defensive rebound107–98
- Q431.1Malik Monk misses 13-foot two point shot107–98
- Q440.1Malik Monk defensive rebound107–98
- Q443.0Norman Powell misses driving layup107–98
- Q455.1Nicolas Batum enters the game for Ivica Zubac107–98
- Q455.1DeMar DeRozan personal foul107–98
- Q41:11De'Aaron Fox makes driving layup107–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:44James Harden makes 27-foot three pointer (Terance Mann assists)LAC 61 – 55 SAC · LAC 48% → 58% +10LAC 48% → 58%+10 pts
- Q350.1Amir Coffey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 76 – 68 SAC · LAC 60% → 71% +11LAC 60% → 71%+11 pts
- Q411:11Norman Powell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Amir Coffey assists)LAC 81 – 73 SAC · LAC 62% → 74% +11LAC 62% → 74%+11 pts
- Q42:41DeMar DeRozan makes 16-foot two point shotLAC 98 – 94 SAC · SAC 11% → 22% +11SAC 11% → 22%+11 pts
- Q42:27Norman Powell makes 27-foot three pointerLAC 101 – 94 SAC · LAC 79% → 93% +14LAC 79% → 93%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -6.5
- ML LAC +200 / SAC -240
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -5
- SAC 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- SAC: Elo 69.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- SAC -212
- LAC +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 109.0 – 115.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −72 | +52 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +143 Elo | SAC 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.1 | Points scored | 118.86th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.8 | Points allowed | 113.117th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +5.67th of 30 |
| 20th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 114.97th of 30 |
| 9th of 30108.6 | Defense rating | 109.410th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 102.012th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–2 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.