San Antonio Spurs at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints24
- Chris PaulAssists10
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints23
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–113
- Q45.1Amir Coffey defensive rebound104–113
- Q48.1James Harden blocks Keldon Johnson 's 5-foot driving layup104–113
- Q415.0Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound104–113
- Q417.0Norman Powell misses free throw 2 of 2104–113
- Q417.0Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 2104–113
- Q417.0Keldon Johnson personal take foul104–112
- Q418.1Chris Paul makes driving layup104–112
- Q421.1Amir Coffey makes driving dunk102–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:30Norman Powell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)SA 91 – 87 LAC · LAC 24% → 37% +12LAC 24% → 37%+12 pts
- Q47:54Amir Coffey makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)SA 91 – 90 LAC · LAC 35% → 50% +15LAC 35% → 50%+15 pts
- Q47:25Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point shot (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)SA 91 – 93 LAC · LAC 49% → 65% +16LAC 49% → 65%+16 pts
- Q46:23Amir Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)SA 93 – 96 LAC · LAC 54% → 70% +16LAC 54% → 70%+16 pts
- Q45:48Kris Dunn makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)SA 93 – 99 LAC · LAC 71% → 84% +13LAC 71% → 84%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -4.5
- ML SA +150 / LAC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- LAC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 49.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- LAC -159
- SA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 105.5 – 110.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | −91 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +3 Elo | SA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 55.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.2 | Points scored | 108.324th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.7 | Points allowed | 110.013th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.716th of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.9 | Offense rating | 106.327th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 107.98th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.4 | Pace | 99.923rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 0–427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−91 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 0–3 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.