Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints21
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerAssists6
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds5
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints25
- Chris PaulAssists13
- Jeremy SochanRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–113
- Q46.1Josh Minott makes dunk (Rob Dillingham assists)103–113
- Q411.0Luka Garza defensive rebound101–113
- Q413.0Blake Wesley misses two point shot101–113
- Q432.1PJ Dozier makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)101–113
- Q439.1PJ Dozier defensive rebound98–113
- Q440.0Stephon Castle misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot98–113
- Q41:03Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound98–113
- Q41:04Rob Dillingham misses two point shot98–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:15Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 39 – 36 SA · MIN 59% → 66% +7MIN 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q28:00Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 45 – 44 SA · MIN 53% → 61% +8MIN 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q24:48Chris Paul makes 26-foot three point jumper (Harrison Barnes assists)MIN 51 – 54 SA · SA 42% → 50% +8SA 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q310:00Harrison Barnes makes 22-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)MIN 60 – 70 SA · SA 64% → 72% +8SA 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q31:02Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 80 – 93 SA · SA 81% → 88% +7SA 81% → 88%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML MIN -170 / SA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.4%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -151
- SA +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 109.0 – 105.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −7 | 0 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +51 Elo | MIN 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 103.629th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 105.03rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.416th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 103.529th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 104.94th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.3 | Pace | 100.125th of 30 |
| 13th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 SA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.