Philadelphia 76ers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Paul GeorgePoints18
- Kyle LowryAssists4
- Andre DrummondRebounds10
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints26
- Norman PowellAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–110
- Q418.2Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 198–110
- Q418.2Bones Hyland shooting foul97–110
- Q418.2Jared McCain makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot97–110
- Q435.1Bones Hyland makes 18-foot pullup jump shot95–110
- Q453.1KJ Martin makes 5-foot two point shot95–108
- Q41:07shot clock turnover93–108
- Q41:29Bones Hyland defensive rebound93–108
- Q41:33Ricky Council IV misses 24-foot three point shot93–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:12Andre Drummond makes 24-foot three point jumperPHI 44 – 42 LAC · PHI 44% → 52% +8PHI 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q22:48Derrick Jones Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)PHI 44 – 47 LAC · LAC 53% → 61% +8LAC 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q310:33Norman Powell makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotPHI 51 – 57 LAC · LAC 62% → 70% +8LAC 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q39:41Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)PHI 53 – 60 LAC · LAC 65% → 73% +8LAC 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q32:45James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 66 – 75 LAC · LAC 73% → 82% +8LAC 73% → 82%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML PHI +110 / LAC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- LAC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 56.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 106.5 – 109.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | −81 | PHI: Missing Joel Embiid −104 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +43 Elo | LAC 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 109.024th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 109.17th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.0 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 25th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 108.422nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 108.68th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 98.927th of 30 |
| 19th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−33 Elo- Joel Embiid suspended by league−104 Elo
Clippers
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.